Police risk becoming society's “default responders” over the next decade, increasingly called on to manage everything from welfare crises and mental health incidents to climate emergencies, digital harms and infrastructure failures as pressure grows across other parts of society.
That warning comes from the Australia New Zealand Policing Advisory Agency's (ANZPAA) Megatrends 2026 report, which identifies a range of social, economic, technological and environmental forces expected to reshape policing across New Zealand and Australia.
For Police Association members, the report's findings will sound familiar. It describes a future in which officers are expected to manage increasingly diverse risks – from mental health crises and climate emergencies to sophisticated cybercrime and social disorder – while maintaining public trust in a more complex operating environment.
The report warns that as other systems struggle to meet growing demand, police will increasingly be drawn into managing social harm, welfare crises, climate emergencies and digital conflict. Without clear boundaries, that expansion of responsibilities risks affecting police capability, workforce wellbeing and public confidence.
Police Association national secretary Erin Polaczuk said the findings reflected what members were already experiencing. “Our members have been telling us for years that policing is becoming more complex, more demanding and more unpredictable. This report confirms those pressures are not going away – they're likely to intensify.”
More than law enforcement
Erin said one of the report’s strongest messages was that police were increasingly being expected to fill gaps elsewhere in the system.
“Police are often the service people call when other parts of the system can't respond,” she said.
“Whether it's mental health incidents, family harm, social distress, major emergencies or increasingly sophisticated online offending, police continue to step up and fill those gaps.
“The challenge is that every new responsibility requires time, training, expertise and resources. Complexity doesn't just increase workload; it changes the nature of the job.”
The report argues that future policing challenges will not arise when economic, social, technological and environmental pressures combine rather than from single issues in isolation. It also identifies emerging pressures ranging from AI-enabled scams and cybercrime to climate-related emergencies, all of which are expected to place additional demands on police.
Workforce pressures
A recurring theme throughout the report is concern about workforce capability and sustainability.
ANZPAA warns that police agencies face growing competition for skilled workers while simultaneously asking officers to operate in increasingly complex environments requiring technical expertise, cultural competence, partnership-building and sophisticated decision-making. At the same time, it says the human qualities at the heart of policing — judgment, discretion, empathy and local knowledge — must remain central.
Erin said the report's warnings about recruitment, retention and capability should be taken seriously.
“The report highlights why retaining experienced staff matters. The skills, judgment and professionalism developed over years of service are critical to effective policing, and we can't afford to lose that experience at a time when the job is becoming more complex and demanding.
“Experience matters in policing. Human judgment, local knowledge and professional discretion can't simply be replaced with technology. Those capabilities take years to build and they need to be retained.”
What policing may need by 2030
According to ANZPAA, police are likely to face a more complex operating environment shaped by social, technological and environmental change. Key challenges include:
Mental health and social harm: Police are expected to play an increasing role responding to welfare concerns, social distress, family harm and other issues traditionally managed elsewhere in the system.
Digital crime and AI-enabled offending: Cybercrime, fraud, online scams and artificial intelligence-enabled deception are expected to become more sophisticated and more widespread.
Climate emergencies: More frequent severe weather events are likely to increase demands on police through emergency response, recovery efforts and multi-agency co-ordination.
Building trust: The report says police will increasingly rely on strong community relationships, fairness and legitimacy rather than institutional authority alone.
A broader skillset
Future policing is expected to require:
- Technical and digital expertise
- Cultural competence
- Partnership-building skills
- Sophisticated decision-making
- Adaptability during emergencies
- Human judgement, empathy and local knowledge
The bottom line
ANZPAA warns that while technology will play a growing role, the human skills developed through experience remain critical and “must not be displaced by over-reliance on technology”.
Shared responsibility
Police Association president Steve Watt said the report raised important questions about the long-term role of police.
“Police can't become the default solution to every social problem.
“We need clear expectations about what policing can realistically deliver, and we need other agencies properly resourced to play their part as well.”
Steve said the report highlighted the growing expectations being placed on police.
“The public expects police to respond professionally in increasingly complex and high-risk situations. The challenge for policymakers is making sure the workforce is properly supported, properly resourced and properly valued so it can continue meeting those expectations.
“If governments and communities expect police to manage a growing range of risks and responsibilities, then there needs to be recognition of the skills, judgment and professionalism required to do that work safely and effectively.”